Dayton Agreement (1995): The Deal That Ended the Bosnian War

The Dayton Agreement ended the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the bloodiest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. It was negotiated over three weeks at a US Air Force base near Dayton, Ohio, initialled on 21 November 1995 and formally signed in Paris on 14 December 1995. It stopped the fighting, but it also created one of the most complicated systems of government in the world, which still shapes Bosnian politics today.

Background: a war that would not end

Bosnia and Herzegovina declared independence from Yugoslavia in March 1992, during the wider breakup of Yugoslavia. Its population was mixed: Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) formed a plurality, alongside large Serb and Croat communities. Bosnian Serb forces, backed by Belgrade, quickly seized around two-thirds of the country, and the Bosnian War brought sieges, mass expulsions known as “ethnic cleansing”, and detention camps.

International efforts to stop the war failed repeatedly. Plans drawn up by European and UN mediators, including the Vance–Owen plan of 1993 and the Contact Group plan of 1994, collapsed because one or more of the warring sides rejected them. UN peacekeepers were present but lacked the mandate and strength to protect civilians.

The turning point of 1995

Several events in the summer of 1995 changed the balance. In July, Bosnian Serb forces overran the UN “safe area” of Srebrenica and killed about 8,000 Bosniak men and boys, an act later judged genocide by international courts (see Srebrenica massacre). In August, Croatia’s Operation Storm retook most Serb-held territory in Croatia, and Croat and Bosniak forces then advanced in western Bosnia.

On 28 August 1995 a mortar shell struck the Markale market in Sarajevo, killing more than 40 people. NATO responded with Operation Deliberate Force, a bombing campaign against Bosnian Serb military targets that lasted from 30 August to 20 September. By the autumn the map on the ground roughly matched the division of territory that Western diplomats had been proposing.

The United States, which had previously left the lead to the Europeans, now took charge. President Bill Clinton sent Assistant Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke on a round of shuttle diplomacy. The mission suffered an early loss when three American members of the team, Robert Frasure, Joseph Kruzel and Samuel Nelson Drew, were killed when their vehicle fell off the Mount Igman road near Sarajevo on 19 August. Holbrooke secured agreed basic principles in Geneva on 8 September and in New York on 26 September, and a countrywide ceasefire took effect on 12 October 1995.

The negotiations at Wright-Patterson

The peace conference opened on 1 November 1995 at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. The Americans chose the base because the delegations could be housed close together, kept away from journalists and prevented from leaving easily. Holbrooke led the negotiations day to day, with Secretary of State Warren Christopher stepping in at key moments. The European Union was represented by the former Swedish prime minister Carl Bildt, and Russia by Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov.

The three presidents, Alija Izetbegović of Bosnia, Franjo Tuđman of Croatia and Slobodan Milošević of Serbia, were present in person. The Bosnian Serb leaders Radovan Karadžić and Ratko Mladić had been indicted by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia and did not attend; Milošević negotiated on behalf of the Bosnian Serbs.

The hardest issues were maps. Sarajevo, the corridor to the eastern enclave of Goražde, the town of Brčko and the exact percentages of territory were argued over until the final hours. Holbrooke later described how the talks nearly collapsed on 20 November, when the Americans prepared to announce failure. A last round of concessions produced an agreement, which the three presidents initialled on 21 November 1995. The formal signing took place at the Élysée Palace in Paris on 14 December 1995.

What the agreement created

The General Framework Agreement is short, but it has eleven annexes covering military matters, borders, elections, human rights, refugees and civilian implementation. Its main provisions were:

• One state, two entities. Bosnia and Herzegovina remained a single internationally recognised state, divided into the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (about 51 per cent of the territory, mainly Bosniak and Croat) and Republika Srpska (about 49 per cent, mainly Serb).
• A new constitution. Annex 4 set up a three-member presidency, with one Bosniak, one Croat and one Serb, and a parliament whose upper chamber, the House of Peoples, is made up of delegates from the three “constituent peoples”. Many decisions can be blocked by a vote invoking the “vital national interest” of any of these groups.
• International military force. A NATO-led Implementation Force (IFOR) of about 60,000 troops, including American soldiers, replaced the UN peacekeepers in December 1995.
• Civilian supervision. Annex 10 created the Office of the High Representative to oversee the civilian side of the peace. Bildt became the first High Representative.
• Refugee return and human rights. Annex 7 gave refugees and displaced people the right to return to their homes, and the agreement required cooperation with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague.

The status of Brčko, a strategic town linking the two halves of Republika Srpska, was left to international arbitration. It eventually became a self-governing district shared by both entities, established in 2000.

Consequences

The agreement achieved its central aim: the war stopped, and it has not resumed. IFOR was succeeded by a smaller NATO Stabilisation Force (SFOR) in December 1996, and in 2004 the European Union took over with its EUFOR Althea mission.

Peace came at a price. The settlement largely confirmed the territorial results of ethnic cleansing, and the return of refugees to areas where they had become a minority was slow and often incomplete. In 1997 the High Representative was given the so-called Bonn powers to impose laws and dismiss officials who obstructed the peace, which he used frequently in the following years.

The power-sharing structure also proved rigid. Bosnia has several layers of government for a population of around 3.5 million, and reforms often stall because each group can block them. In 2009 the European Court of Human Rights ruled in the case of Sejdić and Finci that the constitution discriminated against citizens who do not belong to the three constituent peoples, such as Jews and Roma, because they cannot stand for the presidency. The ruling has still not been fully implemented.

Legacy

Dayton is often studied as an example of forceful American diplomacy, combining military pressure with intensive negotiation. Holbrooke’s own account, To End a War, became a well-known study of the process. The agreement also showed the limits of a settlement designed to end a war rather than build a functioning state.

The conflict in Kosovo was not addressed at Dayton, and some historians argue that this omission encouraged Kosovo Albanians to turn from peaceful resistance to armed struggle, leading to the Kosovo War of 1998–1999. Milošević, celebrated as a peacemaker in 1995, was later tried in The Hague for war crimes and died in custody in 2006 before a verdict was reached.

By the numbers

Timeline

• 1992, March–April: Bosnia and Herzegovina declares independence and war breaks out.
• 1995, July: Bosnian Serb forces capture Srebrenica and kill about 8,000 Bosniak men and boys.
• 1995, 30 August: NATO begins Operation Deliberate Force.
• 1995, 8 September: Agreed basic principles signed in Geneva.
• 1995, 12 October: A countrywide ceasefire takes effect.
• 1995, 1 November: Peace talks open at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base.
• 1995, 21 November: The three presidents initial the agreement.
• 1995, 14 December: Formal signing in Paris.
• 1995, 20 December: NATO’s IFOR takes over from UN forces.

Why it matters

The Dayton Agreement ended a war that had killed around 100,000 people and displaced more than two million. It remains the legal foundation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the debate over whether its ethnic power-sharing should be reformed continues decades after it was signed.